]]> large transient population without deep roots in the community. The economic pressure on people who work long hours or hold multiple jobs also leaves little time for the luxury of politics. Whatever the cause this situation has conveniently allowed political elites to maintain strict control. This apathy was reflected in past caucuses. At the February 14. 2004 Presidential caucus less than one percent (or 4000 votes out of 393,000) of registered Democrats actually participated (I found no evidence to support the urban myth that 9000 people showed up). While Nevada Democrats boasted in their arguments to the DNC to support its early status that turnout was 5-10 times higher than in previous years (do the math: that must have been somewhere between 400 and 800 people) their written arguments did not reveal the actual number,either in 2004 or previously. And I have read of one self-appointed caucus chairman upstate who received a call from a party official instructing him to deliver a unanimous vote for Kerry. That's how it has worked here until now. So go from the situation four years ago to a 2008 caucus that will elect 10,446 delegates (yes that is over 2 ½ times the number of caucus goers in 2004) in 1,754 precincts at 500-600 locations in a three-step process to choose 19 nonbinding delegates of the state's 33 votes at the Democratic National Convention in Denver. And that's not all! All this will be done with rules to select women and minorities proportionally represented according to a strict formula. The caucuses will also select At-Large delegates in meetings along the Strip relying on the "cooperation" of gaming industry and union management. But with exactly 2 months to go the Party has yet to confirm all 9 proposed at-large precinct meeting sites and there is little transparency about the success it is having in recruiting precinct chairpersons. In my canvassing in New Hampshire the predominant attitude (down in the past month to about 50%) of voters has been indecision about who they will vote for in the primary. The situation is quite different in Nevada. Here voters overwhelmingly (from my calls and conversations I estimate 90%) admit total ignorance about the caucus and have no clue to what they should expect. They don't know how it functions that they have to go at a specific time for about two hours or that there is no secret ballot or absentee voting or that anyone can register as a Democrat at the caucus itself. There is even some apparent confusion among Obama staff about whether a photo ID will or will not be required to register. Democratic Party leaders certainly understand the significance of the caucus and expect a large turnout on January 19. No doubt there will be a better turnout than in 2004. But the party leadership has failed to communicate to the voters adequately educate people or organize their Nevada test site. These are ideal conditions for an implosion on Caucus Day. It is an opportunity for maintaining continued insider control of state party politics. On the other hand it could also create a critical mass of broad-based grass roots supporters of the kind who flock to the Obama campaign. The Obama campaign in Nevada is based on the same community organization principles found elsewhere. It is bottoms up grass roots retail politics pure and simple. The "visibility" effort preceding the Las Vegas debate where Obama red shirts vastly outnumbered the other campaigns demonstrated the typical enthusiastic and inspired support he generates. While his debate performance last week was not his best (an undecided woman named Kay who I spoke with by phone begged for greater "clarity") most Nevadans like voters elsewhere have not yet decided who they will support. The campaign staff here is relatively small but can still mobilize to good effect. While not as robust as in Iowa it is prepared to organize educate and get out the vote on January 19. In the meantime volunteers arrive weekly from neighboring states to help canvas. And campaign staffers have already made major progress in recruiting precinct captains and initiating caucus training. One danger however is that the Obama campaign and Nevada's Democratic Party leadership may get into serious conflict. Ironically. Harry Reid should be hoping that Obama succeeds in drawing in a large contingent of activists while his son should be dreading that possibility. Senator Reid needs a huge turnout and scandal-free caucus. That would not necessarily benefit his son who would prefer more limited participation by reliable Hillary supporters and the ability to manipulate the outcome. With Democratic Party registrations estimated to rise by 20-25% since 2004 it is a question if the party leadership can hold back the tide. One wild card that may play out in the next two weeks is the powerful 60,000 member Culinary Union. The smaller local Service Employees union has also not yet announced its support. There is no clear cut candidate for these highly prized endorsements in which Hispanics are an influential force (one Latino union member told me discreetly but unequivocally that the unions are with Obama). Rank-and-file undoubtedly prefer the pro-union Obama or John Edwards but Hillary has also actively courted the leadership. So keep an eye out for developments expected some time after Thanksgiving. CLinton is popular in NV. Have you looked at the polls? What do you say about those? Are they rigged? Perhaps Clinton got such appplause at the debate and the J&J dinner because she is popular not because the Democratic leadership in Nevada as you seem to suggest has done something it shouldn't. Tell me about party jack boots. Tell me who they and what they have done. Tell me what they are doing. Bring substance instead of slander. Back up your assertions or pull your disgusting diary. I appreciate the more moderate tone of other comments here and am not sure why dp is so sensitive about my observations. My identity is no secret for anyone who cares to find out. The primitive state of Nevada's caucus is also no secret. The two Reid's objectives are based on their own declarations and their ability to deliver either is yet to be established. Low turnout or procedure irregularities could hurt Nevadan prestige but the state itself would surely survive. And jackboots are not meant literally (neither are "game" or "implosion") but intimidation bythreatening the possible loss of a job when you have to feed a family or make house payments are worse than a kick to the head. I have not claimed this has happened and don't necessarilyexpect it to but all bets are off if things don't go the way power brokers expect. One other factor that you didn't mention Wizinut is that the open nature of the caucus. One of the constant problems with voter ID efforts here in any campaign is the high % of people who simply won't state their intention even to their neighbors with whom they agree 100%. Others will say yes I support your candidate or no I won't support your candidate to end the conversation. From several cycles of canvassing my precinct and the surrounding precints. I've learned how to read some of the reticent voters but the result is that -- esp in a primary -- voter ID is very difficult. Complicating this is that on caucus day many voters may not be prepared to announce publicly whom they are supporting and I'm not sure how they will react -- perhaps the state party's anticipated mailings and current trainings will have prepared people perhaps the campaigns will have prepared their supporters perhaps people will overcome their hesitation when its in a group or perhaps they'll just walk out and go home. Voters less likely to share their views tend to be older tend to be (in my experience) women and tend not to be activists or members of civic groups or unions. I'll leave it to others to speculate whose supporters are most likely to fit that description. 1. Don't blame the crudeness of the Clinton supporters at the debate on Titus's supporters. Dina is indeed an enthusiastic backer of Clinton and there are plenty of Democratic party leaders in the state and county who are pushing no-holds-barred for Clinton. But the two are not the same. Although it was widely reported at the time of Titus's endorsement that she would carry her strong volunteer network from the 06 campaign over to Hillary -- Rory Reid who wouldn't know a grassroots movement if he sat on it -- even said so. But most of the most active volunteers from her 06 campaign are working for Obama or Edwards. Not even her entire 06 staff followed her to Hillary as some of her key people went to Richardson. Unlike a lot of electeds who consulted their constituents and constituencies openly before endorsing (Assemblyman David Bobzien for instance led a lengthy discussion on his blog). Titus got out front early. 2. The Clinton machine's overplaying of its hand last week -- and really for several weeks -- has really ticked off a lot of Democratic grassroots volunteers even some who are backing Hillary. At the state party's training of temporary precinct caucus chairs over the weekend all the hallway talk was about that. Even among Hillary supporters there was concern that volunteers not approved by the Clinton campaign might be shunted aside as temporary precinct chairs. Richardson volunteers who have generally been very critical of Edwards and Obama were openly talking of the need for all the other campaigns to cooperate on caucus day to ensure it is a fair process. 3. The most interesting question is one you allude to in your article -- where is the Obama campaign? Many reporters have credited Obama with the best grassroots organization; some of the most established progressive leaders such as Leslie and Horsford are working for Obama; on paper they have the most offices and staff in the state. Yet the Obama campaign is largely invisible. At most party events the Obama campaign has no tables no signs and no visible staff presence. Among those volunteers I've spoken with there seems to be a much higher percentage of out of state workers than those calling or canvassing on behalf of Clinton or Edwards -- Obama is comparable only to Richardson in that respect. I'm not saying they don't have it but I wonder if they are deliberately keeping their organization below the radar. Or is it restricted to the predominantly African-American "westside" and Norht Las Vegas? An excellent diary that essentially tells the story of the Nevada caucuses fairly accurately. When less than 1% of the registered voters actually vote any and all state polls are irrelevant. That is the history of the Nevada caucuses. In 2008? Don't bet that it will change. As a general rule the Nevada caucuses are decided by party regulars (central committee members and the possees from local electeds) and union members. When both of these groups are united behind a candidate the caucuses are officially over before they begin. I can tell you that the average Nevada voter has no idea that caucuses are taking place when they happen in Nevada. There is absolutely no tradition of participating in the caucuses. The local media sort of tries to mention them (in between the sports and the weather) but less than 1% of the people pay any attention. Caucuses? Huh? Indications are that at this point in the game the party regulars and the union members are NOT united behind a candidate. If that condition continues to hold true then Nevada is up for grabs DESPITE what the statewide polls (which are irrelevant). On the other hand. Rory (on the Clinton payroll thank you very much) and the elected possees in Clark County do present a formidable advantage for Hillary. She has almost half her puzzle in place. If she then gets the union support put your bets on Hillary to win the exciting Nevada caucuses. The diarist is generally correct in his assessments of grass roots being at odds with the historical party insider machine. A grass roots explosion (4% turnout rather than 1% turnout) would destroy the power of the party regulars and the unions to determine who wins Nevada. If you think they favor that "explosion" and are right now actively trying to boost turnout then respectfully you do not know much about how people enjoy their power. I'll be really surprised if the two remaining major union endorsements go to Clinton. Especially now that the race is tightening nationally. Culinary's endorsement is to my mind not the be-all because a) only 1/3 of their members are registered Ds and b) their membership is geographically concentrated (which will be enhanced by the likelihood that many of their members will participate in the at-large precincts on the Strip). It would matter a lot of Culinary's endorsement brings money and organizational backing from UNITE_HERE. SEUI strikes me as potentially more important. I am wondering if one or both will wait until after Jan 3. I also have my doubts about how effective a lot of the Clinton volunteers will be. Their volunteers appear to be overwhelmingly new to campaigning and from my experience will not be that effective at winning supporters on caucus day. It will depend on whether Clinton spends on mail and media; if she goes up before everyone else as is widely expected and spends a lot more on media that could solidify her lead regardless of the field. But that remains to be seen. In short my analysis is that if Obama or Edwards punches through in Iowa its going to come down to field operations the final week -- who can reach the most leaners and pull them over and turn them out who can win over the most actual caucus goers during reallignment. Yes. I have no doubt that Edwards. Richardson. Obama and Clinton are all doing their voter ID's. And internally each one of them knows how they are doing. If I were managing the effort and I woke up today and found that my candidate's numbers were not in the thousands. I would be cracking the whip. Granted cutting through the pervasive political apathy in Nevada has to be one of the most discouraging things a field director can encounter in life (it hurts in the head.. and the heart) but go on you must. I have some ideas on what I would do (and have done.) For the reasons I stated in the above post at this point in the game. Nevada is still quite unpredictable. If you have campaigns doing hard serious GOTV efforts then the campaign with the best GOTV could win it. I actually think hard serious GOTV is Obama's singular best hope in Nevada. (As a general matter the deck is stacked against Obama in Nevada.) You happen to have a link to the 2008 rules for the caucuses? (Probably at the state party site.) In the past those rules were opaque. I remember sitting down with the rules in 2004 and realizing that the actual delegate selection ultimately was not necessarily connected to the caucus results. What? I hope they fixed that problem. I am guessing not. My understanding is that this time most of the rules are copied directly from Iowa with the notable exception of the at-large precincts for shift workers on the Strip. As for results the delegates elected on Jan 19 to the county conventions will be pledged to a specific candidate (or uncommitted) and the results reported will be %s of delegates won. This will differ from last time the reported results were simply the presidential preference poll of caucus-goers rather than the allotted delegates. There's very little likelihood of "Cross-over" mischeif for 2 reasons -- the GOP caucus is same day same time and because the way the caucus works you'ld need to get enough cross-over voters in many precincts to make a difference. The work that would take for a republican would easily win their candidate the GOP caucus instead. The bigger worry is that same-day registration will create confusion in the precincts. Temp precinct chairs will all be new and the party is not instructing them to ask for proof of residence or identity to participate -- and no real way to verify that the address of the new registrant falls within the precinct boundaries. I don't think this is going to effect the outcome on a large scale basis but it could make the process contentious or unwieldly and slow things up a lot on caucus day. It will be an open transparent process. Whoever the temporary chair/permanent chair of the caucus is matters NOT. The rules are the rules are the rules and candidates' reps have to sign off on the results of each precinct caucus. Second trying to compare 2004 to 2008 is really comparing apples to oranges. In 2004 not a single Democratic candidate showed up in the state until John Kerry showed up in Vegas on caucus day. No paid staff for any campaign existed in Nevada for the primary in 2004. This cycle we've seen each candidate multiple times all across the state. In 2004 there was no media coverage of the caucus. We've seen coverage in all local media (TV and print) about candidate visits education on the caucus etc. The state and local parties are conducting local events to teach potential caucus goers about the process. However we did have close to 9,000 in turnout. 5,000 showed up in Clark County nearly 2,000 in Reno and every other county reported higher than normal turnout. Do you mean to imply with all the candidate visits the media attention etc we won't vastly improve on that? As far as turnout goes even Iowa turnout is notoriously low. 2004 was a record year for Democratic turnout in Iowa however the low turnout in the Republican caucus made statewide turnout less than 6%. In 2000 where both parties had contested races (and hence a much closer analogy to this election cycle). ,(3.5% for Dems. 4.8% for Reps). And this is after Iowa had been on the map for THIRTY years as some sort of presidential bellweather! Finally if you really think that Harry Reid pulls all the strings of Nevada Democrats it is patently obvious to me that you don't know what the hell you are talking about. It's more the opposite. First. I have nothing to apologize for in reporting what I learned in five days in Nevada. In fact my profession was to be "parachuted" into any new culture and quickly assess the local situation. I think I've done a respectable job regarding Nevada. Particularly since I've revealed facts that some Nevadans would rather keep under wraps. Second while you are correct that the rules for Nevada have generally (not absolutely) been aligned with those of Iowa that does not assure a similarly reliable outcome both in turnout and a process free from party manilpulation. Third the number you throw out "about 9000" voters turning out for the 2004 caucus was not even cited by the state party in its own documentation to the DNC (see ). The only hard source I've found is which reports the following vote totals: Nevada DemocratPresidential Nominating Process Precinct Caucuses: Saturday 14 February 20041County Conventions: Saturday 13 March 2004State Convention: Friday 16 April - Sunday 18 April 2004 Candidate Vote Delegate Votes Hard Total Floor Vote Kerry. John F. 2,252 62.9% 24. 75.0% 32. 100.0% Dean. Howard 601 16.8% Edwards. John 373 10.4% Kucinich. Dennis J. 241 6.7% Uncommitted 90 2.5% 8. 25.0% Sharpton. Alfred C. "Al" 25 0.7% (write-in/others) (available) Total 3,582 100.0% Finally. I never suggested that Harry Reid pulls all the strings just that he and his son wield considerable influence in Nevada. But he has set his own goal to define success in the 2008 caucus which you can read at that:"Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. D-Nev. last week said he expected 100,000 Democrats to caucus a number the party locally had been distancing itself from. Reid's comments prompted another round of doubts about whether the Nevada Democratic Party could meet what is seen as an unrealistic target." So anything that falls noticably short of his own goal will be a "failure" by his own standards. Which is why I argue that he would be well-served by a a strong grass roots turnout for Obama and the other candidates. I certainly wish Nevadans much luck with their effort to conduct a caucus that brings pride to the state and its Democratic Party. But anyone who believes these things just happen in the absence of an evolved participatory political culture is likely to be disappointed. That vote total number in Clark County needs a bit of explanation. About 5,000 people showed up to the Clark County caucus. Too many in fact for it to be held in the high school gym as originally intended so the caucus was moved out on to the football field. From what I have heard it was chaos. In the meantime the Clark County caucus vote was held off for TWO HOURS while waiting for the arrival of John Kerry who was late. In those two hours about half of the people left as there was no organization chairs etc and people just gave up. So my original 5,000 Clark County figure does hold. I suspect the total in numbers is for the number of delegates elected to the county conventions throughout the state. There's only one category of numbers identified despite two columns for floor vote and delegate vote. Those Washoe County numbers sound about right and it's what I've heard about Washoe County since 2004. I suspect they have also been better about getting their figures into the VAN. I know that Carson City had about a 600 turnout (about 10% of registered Dems). Douglas County had record turnout as well. Unfortunately it appears that much of the rural turnout did not make it into the VAN. My county for instance shows a turnout of 2 when it was closer to 70. And. I am not listed as one of the attendees and I was there. IMO he wrote a pretty good analysis. I hope the commentator (in comments thread) is wrong about the temp caucus chair situation. I don't know if that is natural paranoia during the heat of a campaign or.. what. Just putting the issue out there like the comment post did shouldsuffice in keeping everything on the up and up.

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http://www.mydd.com/story/2007/11/21/201827/82 ]]> ]]> large transient population without deep roots in the community. The economic pressure on people who work long hours or hold multiple jobs also leaves little time for the luxury of politics. Whatever the cause this situation has conveniently allowed political elites to maintain strict control. This apathy was reflected in past caucuses. At the February 14. 2004 Presidential caucus less than one percent (or 4000 votes out of 393,000) of registered Democrats actually participated (I found no evidence to support the urban myth that 9000 people showed up). While Nevada Democrats boasted in their arguments to the DNC to support its early status that turnout was 5-10 times higher than in previous years (do the math: that must have been somewhere between 400 and 800 people) their written arguments did not reveal the actual number,either in 2004 or previously. And I have read of one self-appointed caucus chairman upstate who received a call from a party official instructing him to deliver a unanimous vote for Kerry. That's how it has worked here until now. So go from the situation four years ago to a 2008 caucus that will elect 10,446 delegates (yes that is over 2 ½ times the number of caucus goers in 2004) in 1,754 precincts at 500-600 locations in a three-step process to choose 19 nonbinding delegates of the state's 33 votes at the Democratic National Convention in Denver. And that's not all! All this will be done with rules to select women and minorities proportionally represented according to a strict formula. The caucuses will also select At-Large delegates in meetings along the Strip relying on the "cooperation" of gaming industry and union management. But with exactly 2 months to go the Party has yet to confirm all 9 proposed at-large precinct meeting sites and there is little transparency about the success it is having in recruiting precinct chairpersons. In my canvassing in New Hampshire the predominant attitude (down in the past month to about 50%) of voters has been indecision about who they will vote for in the primary. The situation is quite different in Nevada. Here voters overwhelmingly (from my calls and conversations I estimate 90%) admit total ignorance about the caucus and have no clue to what they should expect. They don't know how it functions that they have to go at a specific time for about two hours or that there is no secret ballot or absentee voting or that anyone can register as a Democrat at the caucus itself. There is even some apparent confusion among Obama staff about whether a photo ID will or will not be required to register. Democratic Party leaders certainly understand the significance of the caucus and expect a large turnout on January 19. No doubt there will be a better turnout than in 2004. But the party leadership has failed to communicate to the voters adequately educate people or organize their Nevada test site. These are ideal conditions for an implosion on Caucus Day. It is an opportunity for maintaining continued insider control of state party politics. On the other hand it could also create a critical mass of broad-based grass roots supporters of the kind who flock to the Obama campaign. The Obama campaign in Nevada is based on the same community organization principles found elsewhere. It is bottoms up grass roots retail politics pure and simple. The "visibility" effort preceding the Las Vegas debate where Obama red shirts vastly outnumbered the other campaigns demonstrated the typical enthusiastic and inspired support he generates. While his debate performance last week was not his best (an undecided woman named Kay who I spoke with by phone begged for greater "clarity") most Nevadans like voters elsewhere have not yet decided who they will support. The campaign staff here is relatively small but can still mobilize to good effect. While not as robust as in Iowa it is prepared to organize educate and get out the vote on January 19. In the meantime volunteers arrive weekly from neighboring states to help canvas. And campaign staffers have already made major progress in recruiting precinct captains and initiating caucus training. One danger however is that the Obama campaign and Nevada's Democratic Party leadership may get into serious conflict. Ironically. Harry Reid should be hoping that Obama succeeds in drawing in a large contingent of activists while his son should be dreading that possibility. Senator Reid needs a huge turnout and scandal-free caucus. That would not necessarily benefit his son who would prefer more limited participation by reliable Hillary supporters and the ability to manipulate the outcome. With Democratic Party registrations estimated to rise by 20-25% since 2004 it is a question if the party leadership can hold back the tide. One wild card that may play out in the next two weeks is the powerful 60,000 member Culinary Union. The smaller local Service Employees union has also not yet announced its support. There is no clear cut candidate for these highly prized endorsements in which Hispanics are an influential force (one Latino union member told me discreetly but unequivocally that the unions are with Obama). Rank-and-file undoubtedly prefer the pro-union Obama or John Edwards but Hillary has also actively courted the leadership. So keep an eye out for developments expected some time after Thanksgiving. CLinton is popular in NV. Have you looked at the polls? What do you say about those? Are they rigged? Perhaps Clinton got such appplause at the debate and the J&J dinner because she is popular not because the Democratic leadership in Nevada as you seem to suggest has done something it shouldn't. Tell me about party jack boots. Tell me who they and what they have done. Tell me what they are doing. Bring substance instead of slander. Back up your assertions or pull your disgusting diary. I appreciate the more moderate tone of other comments here and am not sure why dp is so sensitive about my observations. My identity is no secret for anyone who cares to find out. The primitive state of Nevada's caucus is also no secret. The two Reid's objectives are based on their own declarations and their ability to deliver either is yet to be established. Low turnout or procedure irregularities could hurt Nevadan prestige but the state itself would surely survive. And jackboots are not meant literally (neither are "game" or "implosion") but intimidation bythreatening the possible loss of a job when you have to feed a family or make house payments are worse than a kick to the head. I have not claimed this has happened and don't necessarilyexpect it to but all bets are off if things don't go the way power brokers expect. One other factor that you didn't mention Wizinut is that the open nature of the caucus. One of the constant problems with voter ID efforts here in any campaign is the high % of people who simply won't state their intention even to their neighbors with whom they agree 100%. Others will say yes I support your candidate or no I won't support your candidate to end the conversation. From several cycles of canvassing my precinct and the surrounding precints. I've learned how to read some of the reticent voters but the result is that -- esp in a primary -- voter ID is very difficult. Complicating this is that on caucus day many voters may not be prepared to announce publicly whom they are supporting and I'm not sure how they will react -- perhaps the state party's anticipated mailings and current trainings will have prepared people perhaps the campaigns will have prepared their supporters perhaps people will overcome their hesitation when its in a group or perhaps they'll just walk out and go home. Voters less likely to share their views tend to be older tend to be (in my experience) women and tend not to be activists or members of civic groups or unions. I'll leave it to others to speculate whose supporters are most likely to fit that description. 1. Don't blame the crudeness of the Clinton supporters at the debate on Titus's supporters. Dina is indeed an enthusiastic backer of Clinton and there are plenty of Democratic party leaders in the state and county who are pushing no-holds-barred for Clinton. But the two are not the same. Although it was widely reported at the time of Titus's endorsement that she would carry her strong volunteer network from the 06 campaign over to Hillary -- Rory Reid who wouldn't know a grassroots movement if he sat on it -- even said so. But most of the most active volunteers from her 06 campaign are working for Obama or Edwards. Not even her entire 06 staff followed her to Hillary as some of her key people went to Richardson. Unlike a lot of electeds who consulted their constituents and constituencies openly before endorsing (Assemblyman David Bobzien for instance led a lengthy discussion on his blog). Titus got out front early. 2. The Clinton machine's overplaying of its hand last week -- and really for several weeks -- has really ticked off a lot of Democratic grassroots volunteers even some who are backing Hillary. At the state party's training of temporary precinct caucus chairs over the weekend all the hallway talk was about that. Even among Hillary supporters there was concern that volunteers not approved by the Clinton campaign might be shunted aside as temporary precinct chairs. Richardson volunteers who have generally been very critical of Edwards and Obama were openly talking of the need for all the other campaigns to cooperate on caucus day to ensure it is a fair process. 3. The most interesting question is one you allude to in your article -- where is the Obama campaign? Many reporters have credited Obama with the best grassroots organization; some of the most established progressive leaders such as Leslie and Horsford are working for Obama; on paper they have the most offices and staff in the state. Yet the Obama campaign is largely invisible. At most party events the Obama campaign has no tables no signs and no visible staff presence. Among those volunteers I've spoken with there seems to be a much higher percentage of out of state workers than those calling or canvassing on behalf of Clinton or Edwards -- Obama is comparable only to Richardson in that respect. I'm not saying they don't have it but I wonder if they are deliberately keeping their organization below the radar. Or is it restricted to the predominantly African-American "westside" and Norht Las Vegas? An excellent diary that essentially tells the story of the Nevada caucuses fairly accurately. When less than 1% of the registered voters actually vote any and all state polls are irrelevant. That is the history of the Nevada caucuses. In 2008? Don't bet that it will change. As a general rule the Nevada caucuses are decided by party regulars (central committee members and the possees from local electeds) and union members. When both of these groups are united behind a candidate the caucuses are officially over before they begin. I can tell you that the average Nevada voter has no idea that caucuses are taking place when they happen in Nevada. There is absolutely no tradition of participating in the caucuses. The local media sort of tries to mention them (in between the sports and the weather) but less than 1% of the people pay any attention. Caucuses? Huh? Indications are that at this point in the game the party regulars and the union members are NOT united behind a candidate. If that condition continues to hold true then Nevada is up for grabs DESPITE what the statewide polls (which are irrelevant). On the other hand. Rory (on the Clinton payroll thank you very much) and the elected possees in Clark County do present a formidable advantage for Hillary. She has almost half her puzzle in place. If she then gets the union support put your bets on Hillary to win the exciting Nevada caucuses. The diarist is generally correct in his assessments of grass roots being at odds with the historical party insider machine. A grass roots explosion (4% turnout rather than 1% turnout) would destroy the power of the party regulars and the unions to determine who wins Nevada. If you think they favor that "explosion" and are right now actively trying to boost turnout then respectfully you do not know much about how people enjoy their power. I'll be really surprised if the two remaining major union endorsements go to Clinton. Especially now that the race is tightening nationally. Culinary's endorsement is to my mind not the be-all because a) only 1/3 of their members are registered Ds and b) their membership is geographically concentrated (which will be enhanced by the likelihood that many of their members will participate in the at-large precincts on the Strip). It would matter a lot of Culinary's endorsement brings money and organizational backing from UNITE_HERE. SEUI strikes me as potentially more important. I am wondering if one or both will wait until after Jan 3. I also have my doubts about how effective a lot of the Clinton volunteers will be. Their volunteers appear to be overwhelmingly new to campaigning and from my experience will not be that effective at winning supporters on caucus day. It will depend on whether Clinton spends on mail and media; if she goes up before everyone else as is widely expected and spends a lot more on media that could solidify her lead regardless of the field. But that remains to be seen. In short my analysis is that if Obama or Edwards punches through in Iowa its going to come down to field operations the final week -- who can reach the most leaners and pull them over and turn them out who can win over the most actual caucus goers during reallignment. Yes. I have no doubt that Edwards. Richardson. Obama and Clinton are all doing their voter ID's. And internally each one of them knows how they are doing. If I were managing the effort and I woke up today and found that my candidate's numbers were not in the thousands. I would be cracking the whip. Granted cutting through the pervasive political apathy in Nevada has to be one of the most discouraging things a field director can encounter in life (it hurts in the head.. and the heart) but go on you must. I have some ideas on what I would do (and have done.) For the reasons I stated in the above post at this point in the game. Nevada is still quite unpredictable. If you have campaigns doing hard serious GOTV efforts then the campaign with the best GOTV could win it. I actually think hard serious GOTV is Obama's singular best hope in Nevada. (As a general matter the deck is stacked against Obama in Nevada.) You happen to have a link to the 2008 rules for the caucuses? (Probably at the state party site.) In the past those rules were opaque. I remember sitting down with the rules in 2004 and realizing that the actual delegate selection ultimately was not necessarily connected to the caucus results. What? I hope they fixed that problem. I am guessing not. My understanding is that this time most of the rules are copied directly from Iowa with the notable exception of the at-large precincts for shift workers on the Strip. As for results the delegates elected on Jan 19 to the county conventions will be pledged to a specific candidate (or uncommitted) and the results reported will be %s of delegates won. This will differ from last time the reported results were simply the presidential preference poll of caucus-goers rather than the allotted delegates. There's very little likelihood of "Cross-over" mischeif for 2 reasons -- the GOP caucus is same day same time and because the way the caucus works you'ld need to get enough cross-over voters in many precincts to make a difference. The work that would take for a republican would easily win their candidate the GOP caucus instead. The bigger worry is that same-day registration will create confusion in the precincts. Temp precinct chairs will all be new and the party is not instructing them to ask for proof of residence or identity to participate -- and no real way to verify that the address of the new registrant falls within the precinct boundaries. I don't think this is going to effect the outcome on a large scale basis but it could make the process contentious or unwieldly and slow things up a lot on caucus day. It will be an open transparent process. Whoever the temporary chair/permanent chair of the caucus is matters NOT. The rules are the rules are the rules and candidates' reps have to sign off on the results of each precinct caucus. Second trying to compare 2004 to 2008 is really comparing apples to oranges. In 2004 not a single Democratic candidate showed up in the state until John Kerry showed up in Vegas on caucus day. No paid staff for any campaign existed in Nevada for the primary in 2004. This cycle we've seen each candidate multiple times all across the state. In 2004 there was no media coverage of the caucus. We've seen coverage in all local media (TV and print) about candidate visits education on the caucus etc. The state and local parties are conducting local events to teach potential caucus goers about the process. However we did have close to 9,000 in turnout. 5,000 showed up in Clark County nearly 2,000 in Reno and every other county reported higher than normal turnout. Do you mean to imply with all the candidate visits the media attention etc we won't vastly improve on that? As far as turnout goes even Iowa turnout is notoriously low. 2004 was a record year for Democratic turnout in Iowa however the low turnout in the Republican caucus made statewide turnout less than 6%. In 2000 where both parties had contested races (and hence a much closer analogy to this election cycle). ,(3.5% for Dems. 4.8% for Reps). And this is after Iowa had been on the map for THIRTY years as some sort of presidential bellweather! Finally if you really think that Harry Reid pulls all the strings of Nevada Democrats it is patently obvious to me that you don't know what the hell you are talking about. It's more the opposite. First. I have nothing to apologize for in reporting what I learned in five days in Nevada. In fact my profession was to be "parachuted" into any new culture and quickly assess the local situation. I think I've done a respectable job regarding Nevada. Particularly since I've revealed facts that some Nevadans would rather keep under wraps. Second while you are correct that the rules for Nevada have generally (not absolutely) been aligned with those of Iowa that does not assure a similarly reliable outcome both in turnout and a process free from party manilpulation. Third the number you throw out "about 9000" voters turning out for the 2004 caucus was not even cited by the state party in its own documentation to the DNC (see ). The only hard source I've found is which reports the following vote totals: Nevada DemocratPresidential Nominating Process Precinct Caucuses: Saturday 14 February 20041County Conventions: Saturday 13 March 2004State Convention: Friday 16 April - Sunday 18 April 2004 Candidate Vote Delegate Votes Hard Total Floor Vote Kerry. John F. 2,252 62.9% 24. 75.0% 32. 100.0% Dean. Howard 601 16.8% Edwards. John 373 10.4% Kucinich. Dennis J. 241 6.7% Uncommitted 90 2.5% 8. 25.0% Sharpton. Alfred C. "Al" 25 0.7% (write-in/others) (available) Total 3,582 100.0% Finally. I never suggested that Harry Reid pulls all the strings just that he and his son wield considerable influence in Nevada. But he has set his own goal to define success in the 2008 caucus which you can read at that:"Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. D-Nev. last week said he expected 100,000 Democrats to caucus a number the party locally had been distancing itself from. Reid's comments prompted another round of doubts about whether the Nevada Democratic Party could meet what is seen as an unrealistic target." So anything that falls noticably short of his own goal will be a "failure" by his own standards. Which is why I argue that he would be well-served by a a strong grass roots turnout for Obama and the other candidates. I certainly wish Nevadans much luck with their effort to conduct a caucus that brings pride to the state and its Democratic Party. But anyone who believes these things just happen in the absence of an evolved participatory political culture is likely to be disappointed. That vote total number in Clark County needs a bit of explanation. About 5,000 people showed up to the Clark County caucus. Too many in fact for it to be held in the high school gym as originally intended so the caucus was moved out on to the football field. From what I have heard it was chaos. In the meantime the Clark County caucus vote was held off for TWO HOURS while waiting for the arrival of John Kerry who was late. In those two hours about half of the people left as there was no organization chairs etc and people just gave up. So my original 5,000 Clark County figure does hold. I suspect the total in numbers is for the number of delegates elected to the county conventions throughout the state. There's only one category of numbers identified despite two columns for floor vote and delegate vote. Those Washoe County numbers sound about right and it's what I've heard about Washoe County since 2004. I suspect they have also been better about getting their figures into the VAN. I know that Carson City had about a 600 turnout (about 10% of registered Dems). Douglas County had record turnout as well. Unfortunately it appears that much of the rural turnout did not make it into the VAN. My county for instance shows a turnout of 2 when it was closer to 70. And. I am not listed as one of the attendees and I was there. IMO he wrote a pretty good analysis. I hope the commentator (in comments thread) is wrong about the temp caucus chair situation. I don't know if that is natural paranoia during the heat of a campaign or.. what. Just putting the issue out there like the comment post did shouldsuffice in keeping everything on the up and up.

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